The 'UK Land Registry House Price Index' can be predicted 5 months in advance – With 98% Accuracy

The Index which is newspaper headline material every month

What if I told you we can know what the Land Registry Index will report five months before it’s published?

This graph compares the average £/sq.ft when a sale is agreed with the average £/sq.ft five months later in the Land Registry. As you can see, they move almost identically. In fact, there’s a 98% match.

This graph compares two things:

The red line is the official Land Registry Average House Price Index, which shows prices at the point of completion.

The blue line is the average £/sq.ft for homes that went Sale Agreed (SSTC)  from the awesome TwentyEA .... yet that data has been shifted 5 months forward to match the Land Registry timing.

So for example, the £/sq.ft figure from January 2025 (when the deal was agreed) is shown on the graph at June 2025, because that’s when it typically completes and appears in the Land Registry.

This lets us compare like for like .... and proves we can predict the market five months ahead with near perfect accuracy.

This means we don’t need to wait for the Land Registry to confirm if the market is rising or falling.

By tracking sale agreed prices today, we can already see the top and bottom of the market as it’s happening.

For agents, this is gold. Less Mystic Meg and more smarter pricing advice. More confident conversations. And less guesswork.

Graph itself in the comments

Let me know your thoughts

Christopher 'Stato' Watkin

PS If you want to know how this data could work in your patch, drop me a message